March 25, 2005
What
Happens Once the Oil
Runs Out?
By KENNETH S.
DEFFEYES
PRESIDENT
BUSH'S hopes for the
Arctic National Wildlife
Refuge came one step
closer to reality last
week. While Congress
must still pass a law to
allow drilling in the
refuge, the Senate voted
to include oil revenues
from such drilling in
the budget, making
eventual approval of the
president's plan more
likely.
Yet
the debate over drilling
in the Arctic refuge has
been oddly beside the
point. In fact, it may
be distracting us from a
far more important
problem: a looming world
oil shortage.
The
environmental argument
over drilling in the
refuge has often been
portrayed as "tree
huggers" versus
"dirty
drillers"
(although, as a matter
of fact, the north
coastal plain of Alaska
happens to have no trees
to hug). Even as we
concede that this is an
oversimplification, we
should also ask how a
successful drilling
operation would affect
American oil production.
The
United States Geological
Survey has estimated
that the Arctic oil
field is likely to be at
least half the size of
the Prudhoe Bay oil
field, almost 100 miles
to the west. Opening
that oil field was like
hitting a grand slam:
Prudhoe Bay, which has
already produced more
than 13 billion barrels,
is the biggest American
oil field. (I was once
at a party with a bunch
of geologists from Mobil
Oil when an argument
broke out: who
discovered Prudhoe Bay?
Everybody in the room
except me claimed to
have done so.)
Unfortunately,
you don't hit a grand
slam in every at-bat.
The geological survey
estimates that the
Arctic refuge could
produce at least half as
much oil as Prudhoe Bay.
It is also possible,
however, that the refuge
could produce no oil at
all - it often happens
in the oil industry. At
the other extreme, the
upper range of the
geological survey's
estimate soars to 16
billion barrels.
Although the geologists
at the survey are widely
respected, the upper
ranges of their
petroleum estimates for
the refuge have drawn
criticism, sometimes
expressed as giggles,
from other petroleum
geologists.
Despite
its size, Prudhoe Bay
was not big enough to
reverse the decline of
American oil production.
The greatest year of
United States production
was 1970. Prudhoe Bay
started producing oil in
1977, but never enough
to raise American
production above the
level of 1970. The
Arctic refuge will
probably have an even
smaller effect. Every
little bit helps, but
even the most successful
drilling project at the
Arctic refuge would be
only a little bit.
But if
the question of whether
to drill in the Arctic
National Wildlife Refuge
is the wrong one, what's
the right one? In 1997
and 1998, a few
petroleum geologists
began examining world
oil production using the
methods that M. King
Hubbert used in
predicting in 1956 that
United States oil
production would peak
during the early 1970's.
These geologists
indicated that world oil
output would reach its
apex in this decade -
some 30 to 40 years
after the peak in
American oil production.
Almost no one paid
attention.
I used
to work with Mr. Hubbert
at Shell Oil, and my own
independent research
places the peak of world
oil production late this
year or early in 2006.
Even a prompt and
successful drilling
operation in the Arctic
refuge would not start
pumping oil into the
pipeline before 2008 or
2009.
A
permanent drop in world
oil production will have
serious consequences. In
addition to the economic
blow, there will be the
psychological effect of
accepting that there are
limits to an important
energy resource. What
can we do? More
efficient diesel
automobiles, and greater
reliance on wind and
nuclear power, are
well-engineered
solutions that are
available right now.
Conservation, although
costly in most cases,
will have the largest
impact. The United
States also has a
300-year supply of coal,
and methods for using
coal without adding
carbon dioxide to the
atmosphere are being
developed.
After
world oil production
starts to decline, a
small group of
geologists could gather
in my living room and
all claim to have
discovered the peak.
"We told you
so," we could say.
But that isn't the
point. The controversy
over the Arctic National
Wildlife Refuge is a
side issue. The problem
we need to face is the
impending world oil
shortage.
Kenneth
S. Deffeyes, a professor
emeritus of geology at
Princeton, is the author
of "Beyond Oil: The
View from Hubbert's
Peak."
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