So Germans are the world's biggest pessimists, are they, because only 13 percent of them believe that "the world is developing in the right direction"? (Germans are world leaders in pessimism, 15 January 2003)

If I were asked whether I thought the "world is developing in the right direction", I would answer with an unequivocal, No! Not because I'm a pessimist, but because I'm a realist, just as those who warned us of the dire threat posed by Islamic fundamentalists prior to the September 11 attacks were, or those who warned our parents and grandparents all through the 1930's of the threat to world peace posed by the Nazis.

I spent a long time living in Germany, so I hope I'm in a position to give an informed opinion about that country. 

Germany if much wealthier than Britain and that wealth is far more evenly distributed. It has excellent roads (not that I'm a great fan of them or the motor car), and an excellent public transport system, an excellent public health service and excellent social security. When I moved back to London last year it was a bit like moving to a 3rd world country. An impression reinforced by the huge numbers of immigrants from 3rd world countries who have moved here during my 30-year absence. Here I have to pay double the price for half the standard (and quality) of living that I enjoyed in Germany - or would do if I were not living rent-free in my mother's house.

The trouble with the Germans (and they are not alone; just prime examples) is that they have so little appreciation for how incredibly well-off they are. When people with so much can still be so dissatisfied - that really is a reason for feeling pessimistic about the future . . .

The media are partly to blame (as here), for always focusing the public's attention on problems, problems, problems (often invented or inflated), or else distracting them with trivia. But mainly to blame is our economic system, and the values, attitudes and aspirations on which it is based and depends.

Germany produces enough material wealth to give its working population one of the world's highest standards of living, to support 4 million unemployed and their dependents well above the poverty level, as well as millions of pensioners, and to finance the development of its eastern provinces which had been ruined and impoverished by 40 years of communist rule. But in order to make any significant difference to its unemployment figures, the German economy would have to grow by at least 3 percent (or more like 4-5 percent) per annum - for ever!! The economic system demands it, although even a child can see that this is impossible. Why then do our economists and politicians not see it? Why are they - the professionals, the experts! - so blind?

I think I know why: Before September 11, few people were prepared to face up to the horrors that terrorists are now, or will soon be, capable of inflicting on us, just as in the 1930's few were prepared to face up to the Nazis threat. Understandably, because doing so meant facing up to war. But for those with eyes to see, war was inevitable. The threats didn't go away. They just grew. We were very fortunate to survive the Nazi threat. If Hitler had not attacked the Soviet Union before finishing Britain off, Germany would almost certainly have won the war and one shudders to think of the kind of world we would now be living in.

The most serious treat we are facing now (or rather, still refusing to face) is that posed by our growth dependent economy, and the values, attitudes and aspirations on which it is based. We cannot go on the way we are - consuming ever more of our planet's limited resources and placing an ever increasing burden on its finite carrying capacity (of which climate change is just one of the consequences). Eventually something has to give, and we will all be in very serious trouble.

The UN talks of lifting billions of people out of poverty - but to what end? So as they can consume a similar proportion of Earth's resources and be just as unhappy and dissatisfied as the Germans?! With what they already have the Germans should be blissfully happy - but they are not, because the "system" (based and dependent on our shared materialistic values, attitudes and aspirations) won't let them. That's the PROBLEM!!

I do not deny that it is a big problem - as was facing up to Nazi Germany. But the sooner we start doing so, the better our chances of avoiding, or at least reducing the scale of the catastrophe towards which we are heading. Although they too are not yet facing up to the full scale of the problem, Germans are far more environmentally aware than most, and many sense that the "world is not developing in the right direction". That is why they are "world leaders in pessimism".