FERRARA,
Italy — On a recent night at
the Blue Elephant recreation
center here, a clutch of
parents watched adoringly as
dozens of 3- and 4-year-olds
sprinted through a colorful
playroom, bounced on the
cushioned floor or doodled on
drawing pads, aglow with
creative pride.
It was Italy
as outsiders still imagine it:
child-worshiping and
family-loving.
But there
was something wrong with the
picture. Most of the parents
were gazing at one, and only
one, child.
That was
true of Gianluca Valenti, who
said that giving his son any
siblings would be too
exhausting and expensive, and
of Barbara Lenzi, who said
that more than one child
"doesn't seem to make
sense."
It was also
true of Rosa Andolfi, who
responded to a question about
having an additional child as
if a vampire were near.
"Basta!"
Ms. Andolfi more or less
yelped, then made a cross with
her index fingers and thrust
it forward.
That gesture
was not just funny but
telling; it touched on an
increasingly worrisome reality
for Italy and other European
countries whose fertility
rates have plummeted over the
last decades, shifting
one-child families close to
the statistical norm.
In Spain and
Sweden, Germany and Greece,
the total fertility rate —
or the average number of
children that a woman, based
on current indicators, is
expected to give birth to —
was 1.4 or lower last year,
according to the World Health
Organization.
In no West
European country did the rate
reach 2.1 — the marker that,
demographers say, means an
exact replenishment of the
population. By contrast, the
United States had a 2.0 rate,
which demographers attribute
to greater immigration.
While that
trend has been evident for
many years, its slow-building
consequences are now coming
into starker relief, as more
West European countries
acknowledge and take new steps
to address the specter of
sharply winnowed and less
competitive work forces,
surfeits of retirees and
pension systems that will need
to be cut back deeply.
In Italy,
where the fertility rate last
year was 1.2, according to the
health organization, Labor
Minister Roberto Maroni has
announced that the cost of the
state pension system will need
to be reduced. Mr. Maroni said
the government would offer
incentives, which he did not
specify, to keep people at
work past the minimum
retirement age of 57.
The United
Nations recently published
data suggesting that the
population of Spain could
decline to about 31.3 million
in 2050 from about 39.9
million now. According to the
World Health Organization,
Spain's fertility rate last
year was 1.1, the lowest in
Western Europe.
Many
provinces in Italy's wealthy,
well-educated north have rates
well below that.
The rate in
the province of Ferrara, which
includes the city of Ferrara,
has been under 0.9 for each of
the years since 1986 that
Italy's National Institute of
Statistics kept track.
Ferrara
officials talk about the
dearth of young children in
the streets, the closing of
elementary schools over the
last decade and a pervasive
sense that something is
missing.
"There's
a lack of energy," Deputy
Mayor Tiziano Tagliani said in
a recent interview here.
"The society is colder
without children."
Nationwide,
Italy's fertility rate has
been so low for so long —
under 1.5 since 1984 — that
the country offers an
especially good glimpse into
the dimensions and dynamics of
the trend.
For example,
Italy now has the world's
oldest population. The
percentage of people 60 or
older is 25, compared with 16
percent in the United States,
according to the population
division of the United
Nations.
The
division's experts project
that by 2050, if current
trends hold, 42 percent of
Italy's population will be 60
or older.
Antonio
Golini, a professor of
demographics at the University
of Rome, Sapienza, said that
would be "unsustainable,
from a cultural and even
psychological point of
view."
That sense
of alarm was reflected in Pope
John Paul II's first-ever
address to the Italian
Parliament in November. The
pope said "the crisis of
the birthrate" in Italy
was a "grave threat that
bears upon the future of this
country."
In Italy, as
in other West European
countries, the low fertility
rate is interwoven with an
array of other issues —
immigration, for one. While
many people and many
politicians in Europe would
like to clamp down on the
rising tide of new arrivals
over the last decade, they may
be forced to accept it, simply
to fill jobs and maintain
levels of productivity.
Europe
stands out as the continent
with the lowest fertility
rates. The numbers are now
starkest in East European
countries like Bulgaria,
Latvia and Ukraine, each of
which had a rate of 1.1 in
2001, according to the World
Health Organization. (Its
figures sometimes differ
slightly from those of
individual countries, but
provide a yardstick.)
But the
trend hit Western Europe
earlier, and has had more time
to produce hand-wringing and
soul-searching. Apart from
welcoming more immigrants, no
one knows precisely what to
do.
Many
governments have expanded tax
breaks for parents, child care
alternatives or maternity and
paternity benefits,
acknowledging that a high cost
of living and more women in
the work force can be
obstacles to large families.
In some of those countries,
like France, the fertility
rate has nudged slightly
upward.
Spain is
considering a variety of ways
to address those obstacles:
cheaper utility bills for
large families; assistance for
young couples who are trying
to afford homes; the creation
of hundreds of thousands of
new preschools and nursery
schools; and longer hours for
existing schools, an
accommodation for working
parents.
Although the
Italian government provides
mothers with nearly full
salary compensation for about
a half-year of maternity
leave, the city of Ferrara,
like several other north
Italian cities, added benefits
that kick in after that
period. They include cash
supplements of about $350 a
month for mothers who want to
stay at home an additional
nine months. Ferrara also has
pumped millions of dollars
into nursery schools and child
care centers like the Blue
Elephant.
But Italy's
low fertility rate persists,
suggesting that the reasons go
well beyond the arithmetic of
salaries and schedules.
"People
are studying longer, and thus
are finding work later, when
there is work, and then are
marrying later, which doesn't
necessarily mean having a baby
anymore," said Valerio
Terra Abrami, head of the
department of social
statistics for Italy's
National Institute of
Statistics.
Contraception
and abortion are more readily
available. Divorce is more
common.
Moreover,
decades of prosperity have
altered people's assumptions
and expectations. Older people
once poised to look after
grandchildren now pursue other
activities and travel more. As
for would-be parents, their
attachments to leisure time,
conveniences and indulgences
do not easily accommodate
multiple children — or
sometimes, for that matter,
any children at all.
"It's
never been at the top of my
list," said Teresa Ginori,
41, a fashion magazine
consultant who lives outside
Milan. "It's never been
in the top 200 things."
Ms. Ginori
and many women she knows have
never married, in part, she
said, because of a facet of
Italian life that she cited as
one possible explanation for
the especially low fertility
rate here.
Many Italian
men, she said, live with their
mothers into their 30's. When
they marry, they are not
prepared to help out at home
in ways that take pressure off
women, especially if those
women want to have children.
"Even
the most open-minded guy —
if you scratch with the nail a
little bit, there's the mother
who did everything for
him," she said. "I
hate the mothers of these men.
These mothers are a
disaster."
Parents also
seem to feel that they owe
more opportunities to the
children they do have, a
conviction that discourages
large families.
That partly
explained the prevalence of
only children in Ferrara,
where one-child parents at the
Blue Elephant center mentioned
siblings who had also stopped
at one child. The center's
coordinator, Monica Viaro, 37,
has only one child, an
8-year-old son.
Ms. Andolfi,
32, who has a 3-year-old son,
said a second child would
limit her son and limit the
baby.
She conceded
that her family's definition
of what it needed was
expansive.
"The
cellphones aren't enough and
the televisions aren't
enough," she said.
"It's a little
selfish."
Ms. Lenzi,
32, who is also part of a
two-career couple, said she
liked to read to her
3-year-old son, adding,
"It doesn't make sense to
have three just to tuck them
in at night and say, `Ciao,
stella,' and that's it."