THE image of pistol-carrying police officers in Nottingham raises fears among many of a fully armed service.

This would overturn two centuries of policing in which the bobbies of the mainland force have remained one of the few forces in the world still generally unarmed. Some officers believe the Nottingham case is the latest step on an inevitable move towards an armed force. They fear that greater use of weapons by police will increase gun crime.

 The trend to arming the police has been going on for a long time, largely unseen by the public. There has been an increasingly active role for a limited number of firearms officers, most travelling unobserved in police vans.

 Home Office figures show that armed police operations have increased significantly in the past 20 years. Although incidents in 1998/99, the latest year for which statistics are available, were slightly down on the previous year, the total of 10,928 operations was nearly double the 5,625 figure in 1993 and more than treble the 3,180 in 1983.

 The number of operations involving armed response vehicles (ARVs), providing back-up involving pistols and automatic weapons, also grew substantially in the late 1990s, from 5,523 in 1995/96 to 7,791 in 1998/99. The increase in operations has mirrored a growth in criminal use of guns. From 1983 to 1999, the number of such incidents, involving firearms or air weapons, has grown from around 8,000 to about 13,000.

 Yet, surprisingly, the number of officers authorised to carry firearms has declined over that 16-year period. Specialist firearms officers fell by almost half from 13,000 in 1983 to around 6,300 in 1998/99, but the smaller force is regarded as more highly trained.

 Despite the growth in armed operations, the number of deliberate discharges of weapons by officers and the number of deaths or injuries have tended to remain in single figures. In 1983 police fired guns in three incidents, with no deaths. In 1998/99 there were five discharges and no deaths.

 There is little support in Home Office statistics for those who suggest that greater police use of guns will generate violent crime. Although there were around 13,000 incidents involving guns in 1998/99, only 5,209 involved firearms other than air weapons, a 14 per cent fall on two years before.

 There were about 8,660 reports of air weapons being used, a 10 per cent increase on the previous year, but three quarters of the offences involved criminal damage. A poll of rank-and-file officers four years ago found that the majority was against arming, although the margin against was smaller in inner city forces. But there was a strong demand for swifter armed back-up.

 Fred Broughton, the chairman of the Police Federation of England and Wales, said the majority of officers were still against arming. He does not wish to see an armed force, but believes that it is inevitable. 

"If there is a risk that foot patrols will face guns, then the deployment of armed officers on foot patrol is a reasonable response. It depends on the risk assessment in each case. None of us wants to go to an armed service, but we all see we are moving gradually towards it."