LIKE
well-dressed wallflowers
at a Valentine's Day
ball, travelers on the
East Coast once watched
with envy as people in
other parts of the
country were courted
assiduously with low
fares.
Not
that the airlines
shunned their business.
In fact, the East Coast
has long been the
industry's top market
for corporate travel,
with flights to and from
New York, Boston and
Washington accounting
for huge chunks of the
airlines' revenue.
Therein
lay the rub. Major
airlines could afford to
keep prices low on the
West Coast and in the
South, areas dominated
by vacation travel,
knowing that they could
milk the East Coast with
high fares that business
travelers had no choice
but to pay.
Not
anymore. In the last
three years, the East
Coast market has become
the equivalent of an
air-fare bazaar.
Low-fare airlines, led
by JetBlue,
Southwest and AirTran,
are luring customers
with prices that in some
cases are 50 percent
less than the going rate
in 2000.
To
protect their turf,
major airlines like
American and Delta are
fighting back, expanding
service, offering more
free tickets to frequent
fliers and slicing fares
to once-unimaginable
levels, like $79 each
way from New York to Los
Angeles.
And
the price wars are just
heating up. "The
East Coast is shaping up
to be a real
slugfest," said
Darin Lee, a senior
managing economist at
LECG, a consulting firm
in Cambridge, Mass.
Already,
that brawl has drawn
blood. Song, the
much-ballyhooed low-fare
carrier started last
year by Delta, said last
week that it would
reassess its expansion
plans. And analysts say
US Airways, which
emerged from bankruptcy
last year, could be
toppled right back in if
it cannot come up with a
new strategy.
New
competition is stacked
up like planes in a
holding pattern over La
Guardia, just waiting
for its chance to land.
Southwest, the nation's
sixth-largest airline
and the low-fare leader,
will begin flying out of
Philadelphia in May.
Ted, the low-fare
airline from United that
begins service in the
West this week, said on
Thursday that it would
add flights at
Washington Dulles
International Airport
later in the year.
Independence
Air, an offshoot of
Atlantic Coast Airlines,
a regional carrier for
United, is scheduled to
begin service in
November, from Dulles -
or sooner if Atlantic
Coast's agreement with
United, which still has
six years to run, is
severed.
Even
foreign airlines want
into the game. Last
week, WestJet, the
Canadian low-fare
airline, said it would
begin flights to Florida
and other destinations.
And Sir Richard Branson,
the British entrepreneur
and founder of Virgin
Atlantic, is considering
Boston, Washington and
San Francisco as the
base for a low-fare
contender that he hopes
to start in the United
States.
The
competition on the East
Coast could not come at
a worse time for the
major airlines, which
have lost $15 billion
since the downturn in
the travel market began
in 2000. In past
decades, they used their
financial power to fight
off the low-fare
airlines, undercutting
their fares, expanding
service on the same
routes served by the
newcomers and reeling in
passengers with double
and triple
frequent-flier miles.
BUT
this time, the newcomers
are in better shape than
the majors they are
staring down. Last year,
JetBlue, AirTran, ATA
Airlines and Southwest
registered increases in
numbers of passengers,
while Northwest, Delta,
American, United and US
Airways all had
decreases, in part
because of a falloff in
international business,
a category in which the
low-fare airlines
generally do not
compete.
As
tough as fare wars are
for airlines, East Coast
passengers could not be
happier. Juley Fulcher,
the Washington director
of Break the Cycle, a
nonprofit organization
that works with youth
against domestic
violence, says her
ability to fly on
business comes down to
finding an affordable
fare. Her reason for
choosing an airline, she
said, is "price,
short and sweet."
In the
past, depending on her
destination, that meant
hoping for a fare sale
on United or Delta. But
now, Ms. Fulcher often
chooses between two
low-fare competitors:
JetBlue, which serves
Dulles, and Southwest,
which flies from
Baltimore.
She
prefers JetBlue, with
its seat-back video
systems and seat
assignments, to
Southwest, which does
not assign seats in
advance. "You have
that cattle-call feeling
of having to run over
people to get to your
spot," she said.
That
analogy applies to the
East Coast aviation
field, where history
shows just how hard it
is to compete for
passengers. Since 1981,
a dozen new low-fare
airlines have started
East Coast service, but
one-third of them no
longer exist.
Nobody
is ruling out the
possibility that another
airline will disappear.
"The list is bound
to get a lot shorter
before this is
over," said Michael
S. Allen, chief
operating officer of
Back Aviation Solutions,
an industry consulting
firm.
On top
of nearly everyone's
most endangered list is
US Airways, the
seventh-largest American
airline. Its beleaguered
chief executive, David
N. Siegel, has vowed to
come up with "a big
surprise" to fend
off Southwest, which
begins service on May 9
from Philadelphia, one
of US Airways' three
hubs.
But
defeating Southwest, the
industry's most
profitable player, will
not be easy. Even as US
Airways has promised to
stand toe to toe with
Southwest, it has put
its hubs and other
assets, including its
East Coast shuttle, on
sale.
"They'll
probably drive US
Airways out of
business," Charles
A. O'Reilly III, a
business professor at
Stanford, said of
Southwest. US Airways,
Professor O'Reilly said,
had no excuse for not
responding sooner to
low-fare airlines'
assault on the East
Coast, which began when
JetBlue, based at
Kennedy Airport in New
York, began flying in
1999.
Even
competing industry
executives readily
credit JetBlue for
bringing lower fares to
Eastern cities.
"You have to look
north to JetBlue,"
said Kerry Skeen, the
chief executive of
Atlantic Coast, based in
Dulles, Va.
Sean
Donohue, the United
executive in charge of
Ted, said: "You
have to be candid here.
JetBlue added a lot of
competition up and down
the Eastern
Seaboard."
That
may be putting it
mildly. During the four
years JetBlue has been
flying on the East
Coast, fares from New
York to cities it serves
have fallen by 30 to 50
percent, Dr. Lee, the
LECG analyst, said.
David
G. Neeleman, who founded
JetBlue in 1999, said
the market was ripe for
the kind of low-fare
competition already
found in other parts of
the country. "We
knew if we could touch a
nerve with low fares and
good service, there
would be an explosion in
air travel," he
said on Friday.
"And that's what's
happened."
JetBlue
cites the example set by
Southwest, whose
consistent profitability
belies the idea that
low-fare companies
cannot make money.
"It is one of our
strengths, to be
low-cost and
efficient," said
Gary Kelly, the chief
financial officer of
Southwest, based in
Dallas. And in words
that might chill his
competitors, Mr. Kelly
continued, "We are
a growth company, and we
have places we don't
serve."
In
fact, the sound
financial situation of
Southwest, JetBlue and
other low-fare airlines
is in sharp contrast to
their East Coast
precursors, like People
Express, which tried to
bring cheap fares to the
market two decades ago.
"What
you've had are stronger
players who've been able
to come in at a time of
weakness for the larger
players, and have been
financed sufficiently to
withstand competitive
responses," Mr.
Allen said.
Dr.
Lee says Southwest, as
well as airlines
overseas, like Ryanair
in Europe and Virgin
Blue in Australia, have
provided a template that
People Express lacked.
"Fifteen years ago,
it wasn't clear to a
start-up airline how to
successfully run a
low-fare airline,"
he said.
In
1981, People Express was
the darling of its
aviation day. Founded by
Donald Burr three years
after the government
deregulated the airline
industry, it lured
hordes of passengers to
the dingy North Terminal
at Newark with
dirt-cheap fares.
Despite
the long lines and
uncomfortable seats, it
had a cult following
among passengers and
industry experts who
praised its no-frills
approach as visionary.
But passengers
eventually grew tired of
the crowds and chaos,
while major airlines
ganged up on it,
undercutting its fares
and outwitting it with
more sophisticated
reservations systems. By
1987, People Express was
gone.
WHY
couldn't something
similar happen this
time? For a simple
reason: the new low-fare
airlines are more aware
of mistakes they must
avoid. Mr. Skeen at
Atlantic Coast says the
trick is to keep a lid
on costs as well as
ticket prices. Aside
from streamlined labor
contracts, the keys to
controlling expenses
include the Internet.
In the
past, Mr. Skeen said, it
cost airlines $15 to $20
per passenger to book a
reservation, either
through their own
reservation centers or
through travel agents.
But tickets booked on
the Web site of the new
Independence Air will
cost the airline 50
cents each to process,
he said.
Another
contrast is on the
tarmac. Conventional
wisdom among low-fare
airlines has been to
pick one type of jet and
stick to it. Southwest
has famously used just
one family of airplanes,
the Boeing
737, allowing it to
simplify repairs and
keep ground time short.
That strategy has been
mirrored by Delta's
Song, which flies
199-seat Boeing 757's,
and Ted, which will fly
156-seat Airbus 320's.
But
the advent of small,
nimble regional jets is
setting the single-plane
theory on its ear. On
Monday, Embraer,
the Brazilian aircraft
maker, will begin
producing the first of
the 100 planes that
JetBlue has ordered,
with options to buy 100
more. JetBlue expects to
deploy the planes, with
100 seats - twice the
capacity of the
most-used regional jets
today - to some of the
800 cities clamoring for
its business, many of
which have airports too
small to easily
accommodate the bigger
planes it flies now.
New
planes will let JetBlue,
and potentially other
low-fare airlines expand
quickly. "Are they
going to antagonize the
majors? No. They are
going to terrify the
majors," Professor
O'Reilly said.
"They are going to
get into those cities
before the majors
can."
John
Selvaggio, the president
of Song, acknowledges
that the airline was
begun by Delta as a
defensive measure so
that it could retain
leisure travelers flying
between New York and
Florida, rather than let
them defect to JetBlue
and others. But Song has
become more than an
airline for vacationers.
Business
travelers, evidently
happy with its low
fares, fill a good
portion of its East
Coast seats.
"There's been a
tremendous blurring of
that line" between
leisure and corporate
fliers, Mr. Selvaggio
said. "When they
fly Song, they like
it," he said of the
airline's frequent
travelers.
AS
long as Song and other
low-fare airlines are
present, Mr. Selvaggio
said, East Coast fares
will not creep up once
the economy comes back.
With all the
competition, he said,
few airlines expect
business travelers to
pay top dollar for the
convenience of getting
on planes at a moment's
notice. "People
don't want to pay those
high fares," he
said. "Corporations
are not approving those
budgets. Everybody is
looking for a deal. To
the cities that these
carriers fly to, the
days of a $1,200 walk-up
fare are gone."
That
is a double-edged sword
for Delta, which still
carries 70 percent of
its passengers in its
traditional
hub-and-spoke system.
Delta would prefer to
have revenue increase, a
prospect Song may not
offer. Yet, without
Song, it might lose
business altogether,
Professor O'Reilly said.
Mr.
Kelly at Southwest says
the East Coast is hardly
the only market where
travelers have become
resistant to high fares.
"I think everywhere
in the United States
you're eventually going
to have fares offered at
much lower prices than
we've seen in the
past," he said.
What
could stymie the East
Coast expansion? For one
thing, a further decline
in customers. Despite
the flurry of
competition, overall air
traffic has fallen 7
percent since 2000, the
industry's peak year for
travel. The terrorist
attacks of Sept. 11,
2001, continue to
depress travel 30 months
later.
And
without a robust
economic recovery, all
the airlines' hopes of
finding passengers to
fill their planes may
not be realized, said
Dr. Lee at LECG.
"The one thing you
can say about the
airline industry,"
he said, "is that
there are no
guarantees."
Indeed,
Delta has already had to
rethink its plans for
Song. Last week, even as
Ted, the new United
operation, announced
that it would use Dulles
as a second hub, Song
revealed its plans to
end its Dulles service,
which it began in
September. Further, the
airline is conducting a
review of all its
operations and will
determine whether routes
should be flown by the
main airline or by Song,
Mr. Selvaggio said.
Ted,
too, has already had to
adjust. Even before it
began flying, the
airline was forced to
scale back its fares,
which were supposed to
top out at $414, one
way, for last-minute
tickets with no
restrictions. Instead,
no one-way fare on Ted
will be more than $299.
That matched the cap
that Frontier, a
low-fare rival based in
Denver, placed on its
fares. And it is the
most that Southwest
charges for any one-way
ticket nationwide,
although the airline
does not serve Denver.
Not yet, anyway.The
major airlines,
meanwhile, are trying to
figure out their role in
all this. Until
recently, they argued
that their extensive
route systems,
frequent-flier programs
and potential
first-class upgrades
would keep passengers
loyal. But the prospect
of $250 tickets on
routes that once cost
five times more has
eroded that customer
fealty.
Now
that United and Delta
have waded into the
battle with low-fare
operations, the industry
is wondering if and when
the market leader,
American, will do the
same. The airline has
been battling the
low-fare competitors by
matching fares when
necessary, streamlining
operations and aiming
its appeal at its vast
array of frequent
fliers. In a move aimed
at undercutting
JetBlue's push west from
New York and Boston,
American offered a deal
this winter, matched by
Delta and Song, that
gives travelers a free
ticket, with
restrictions, anywhere
in its system after two
paid trips from New York
(or Boston) to
California or Florida.
American said last week
that 150,000 people had
signed up for the
offers. Mr. Neeleman
acknowledged that the
major airlines'
aggressive response was
a reason JetBlue's
transcontinental revenue
fell during the fourth
quarter, raising
analysts' eyebrows.
But
American hasn't been
able to protect its
position on one of its
most important
battlegrounds, Kennedy
Airport. Last year,
JetBlue nudged past
American to become the
largest airline serving
J.F.K. Dominance there
was a point of pride for
American, whose New York
operations, decades ago,
contributed one-quarter
of its revenue.
Gerard
J. Arpey, chief
executive of AMR,
American's parent, would
not rule out the
possibility of starting
a low-fare operation.
"I take seriously
everything our
competitors are
doing," he said
last month.
"The
low-fare carriers are
well capitalized and
willing to sustain"
their growth, said Mr.
Allen at Back Aviation
Solutions. But major
airlines will not sit
back on their hands and
watch the East Coast
market fall to invaders,
he added: "It's not
going to be a
cakewalk."
East
Coast passengers,
meanwhile, no longer
need to feel like
children who didn't get
Valentines from everyone
in their class.